ULA Report 2026

This paper is a partial reanalysis of the data used by Jason Ward and Shane Phillips in a report released in April 2025 by the UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies titled “Taxing Tomorrow: Measure ULA’s Impact on Multifamily Housing Production and Potential Reforms.” Using data and statistical code provided by Ward and Phillips, we reexamine their claim to have shown a “robust causal linkage” between Measure ULA and a reduction in multifamily housing construction. We find that the building permit data used by Ward and Phillips do not show any meaningful change in the number of multifamily housing units permitted on land sold after Measure ULA took effect.  In fact, there was a slight, albeit statistically insignificant, increase in the number of multifamily units permitted per month for projects with 10 or more units on land sold after Measure ULA took effect. 

 

This discrepancy stems from differences in the outcome variable analyzed. We find that Ward and Phillips did not directly analyze the change in the number of multifamily units permitted. Rather, they tested whether the average size of multifamily projects had changed after Measure ULA took effect. Their findings leap from an analysis of the typical size of a project to a conclusion about the annual rate of housing construction, essentially assuming that the number of projects permitted each month did not change, when in fact it did. Moreover, we find that the observed change in average project size is better explained by broader macroeconomic factors, such as changes in the federal funds rate, than Measure ULA taking effect. Ward and Phillips’ claim of a “robust causal linkage” between Measure ULA and declines in multifamily housing production is not reflected in the data they used.